Recovered paper traders report lukewarm market

Outright optimism is hard to find in a series of paper recycling market reports collected for the most recent edition of the Bureau of International Recycling (BIR) "World Mirror on Recovered Paper."

In the United States market, paper mill closures in 2025 may have taken 4 million tons of annual capacity offline, according to Myles Cohen of VIPA Lausanne SA, resulting in lower domestic demand for recycled paper and also tumbling prices, especially for old corrugated containers (OCC) and mixed paper.

"Domestically, OCC and mixed paper prices have hopefully hit the bottom," Cohen says. "Material recovery facilities (MRFs) and paper recycling plants are struggling to make profits as collection and baling costs are higher than their selling prices. It appears that we are in for a couple of tough months ahead.”

Among export markets, India emerged as the most consistent export outlet, while East and Southeast Asia were selective and increasingly reliant on domestic fiber, according to Francisco Donoso of Spain-based Dolaf Servicios Verdes regarding the late 2025 landscape.

Simone Scaramuzzi of Italy-based LCI Srl says markets in Asia east of India began losing their appetites late last year.

“When European recovered paper was being shipped to Asia earlier in 2025, volumes dropped sharply—by [from] 40 percent to 60 percent on some routes—because European prices, even after declines, remained high relative to local Asian alternatives," Scaramuzzi says.

Also in that region, the market’s perception of risk shifted sharply in late fall when China introduced measures that effectively halted imports of dry-ground recycled pulp, according to Donoso.

“This development removed an important indirect outlet for recovered fiber and immediately raised concerns that more European OCC would be forced back onto the domestic market," he adds.

Scaramuzzi says that while some Asian markets continue to source imports, domestic mill demand in China and Southeast Asia has been tepid, broadening the regional price divergence.

“By the close of 2025, the European recovered paper market had settled into a fragile equilibrium,” says Donoso, who is chair of the BIR Paper Division. “The market entered the new year with prices low, margins theoretically intact and fundamentals still pointing to a cautious outlook rather than a rebound."